Following a year of low Time Series Momentum (TSMOM) and relatively weak performance, in 2024, CTAs generated positive returns as trendiness soared above long‑term average levels on the back of record-breaking trends in softs and stocks, especially during the first quarter of the year. The RPM Evolving CTA Fund was up reaching a new all-time high slightly outperforming CTA benchmarks (on an exchange rate adjusted basis). Performance was mixed across managers and substrategies, i.e., commodity‑only managers were a disappointment whereas trend followers and short‑term traders outperformed significantly. RPM’s active allocations also added significant value.
As the cyclical slowdown is expected to continue, as the business cycle should not change direction, and as central banks will probably keep cutting rates, the outlook for CTAs is cautiously optimistic. The incoming Trump administration is expected to contribute notably to increased and directionless market volatility though. Diversification with regards to trading styles, time horizons, and sector exposure seems to be the most promising antidote.
Read the full story below:
RPM Evolving Yearly Performance Review 2024